Super-computer predicts how League One title and promotion battle will unfold for Sheffield Wednesday, Barnsley FC, Plymouth Argyle, Ipswich Town and Derby County
Using their ratings for each team, experts at FiveThirtyEight simulate seasons thousands of times to produce their prediction for each side’s final points tally and league position.
They have crunched the latest numbers and believe that second-placed Wednesday - who stunned Newcastle United in the FA Cup at the weekend and are unbeaten in 13 matches since October 4 in the league - will pip current leaders Plymouth Argyle to silverware.
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Hide AdDarren Moore's side are tipped to finish with 93 points, two clear of Argyle, who drew at Bolton in the league on Saturday. They are given a 77 per cent chance of promotion and 44 per cent chance of winning the title.
Action this weekend sees Wednesday, who are five points adrift of Plymouth with a game in hand, face a testing trip to Wycombe.
Argyle make the journey to third-placed Ipswich, who are two points behind the Owls and seven adrift of the Devonians - albeit having played a game fewer - in a key fixture.
Meanwhile, Barnsley - who have started 2023 with successive 3-0 losses in league and cup - head to Charlton Athletic at the weekend.
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Hide AdDespite recent results, the experts believe that the Reds, who currently occupy the last play-off spot, will finish in the end-of-season lottery in fifth. They are given a 55 per cent of reaching the play-offs and 20 per cent chance of promotion.
Other key weekend games see Bolton host Portsmouth and Derby head to Cheltenham. Peterborough – on the fringes of the play-offs in ninth - make the trip to the side just below them, Port Vale, on Monday evening.
Predicted League One table
Team | Predicted points |
Sheffield Wednesday | 93 |
Plymouth | 91 |
Ipswich | 88 |
Derby | 82 |
Barnsley | 77 |
Bolton | 75 |
Wycombe | 72 |
Peterborough | 68 |
Portsmouth | 65 |
Port Vale | 63 |
Bristol Rovers | 62 |
Exeter | 61 |
Oxford | 61 |
Charlton | 61 |
Fleetwood | 60 |
Lincoln | 57 |
Shrewsbury | 55 |
Cheltenham | 52 |
MK Dons | 50 |
Morecambe | 46 |
Accrington | 45 |
Cambridge | 44 |
Burton | 43 |
Forest Green | 37 |